Sunday, August 2, 2020

Weekly learning 2-Aug-20

I am starting this weekly series to list out my weekly learning and will also be adding link to good reads. Most of these are liked by me in my twitter account.

1. Nice presentation by @jitenkparmar on Investing in Cyclicals

2. Not really investment related. but I love this ad!



https://twitter.com/SpencerAlthouse/status/1288882976982474752?s=20


3. Team lease has put out great graphs to show Compliance in different part of India. Tweet from Manish Chokhani shows details

https://twitter.com/chokhani_manish/status/1287239415496970240?s=20

4. Akre lays out the basics of what to look for in a business in 1994.

Image


It is still relevant! Credit Chris Mayer @chriswmayer


5. 50 years of Berkshire Letters in just 150 pages

https://mjkfinvestment.com/Portals/0/Berkshire%20reports.pdf?ver=2020-07-20-141244-947 @Mjkfinvestment


Enjoy!








Thursday, October 17, 2019

A Simple idea - Arvind Infrastructure

I wrote below in the month of Oct, 15 as the thesis for investment. This is the first time I created 100% position in a single trade and decision was made overnight after reading Company update available in stock exchange.

A simple Idea
Investment made on around 16-Sep-15 (~5% of portfolio).

A company demerged and listed separately. Since the Market cap of this demerged Company compared to Mother company is very low, where a significant % of shares are held by institutional, price of demerged Company fell significantly from it’s peak with in a month of listing as institutions start getting rid of this tiny Company.

This demerged company is in Real Estate business, mostly developing properties on it’s own land or on collaboration with land owners. Market cap less than 100 cr., sales of more than 100 cr, operating margins of ~30% and net profit margins of 12% on consolidate basis. Made net profit of 10 cr last year. P/B – 0.3 & PE=9. With the ongoing & future projects, Company is expected to do sale of 2500 cr in next few years.

Assume sale is going to be 80% of projections – 2000 cr
Operating profit (30%)– 600 cr
Net profit (12%) – 240 cr.
Market cap  < 100 cr.

So even if you consider this company is going to just finish the projects in hand, distribute the profit after paying off debt (80 cr debt) & shut down, you still make money.

Additionally - this Company is from a reputed group, so they will not let this Company a 100 cr company in future and definitely will do something to grow at the industry rate.

Market sometime provide such opportunities and you have to be lucky to notice and grab. 


Fast forward - With in 3 years market cap reached about 600 cr+ and currently 300 cr. If you notice, my assumptions never realized (2500 cr sales in few years). They recorded topline of ~750 cr in next 4 years and net profit of less than 100 cr. There was enough safety margin that even after partial fulfillment of thesis, Company delivered desired results.

How Company is going to do in future - I have no idea. However management is trying to work with in asset light model (working with land owners, buying limited land, etc). I am still holding the Company, though trimmed the position slightly when position size was more than 12% to 10% at peak.

Note: I will be sharing my failures and lesson learned in my next post

Disclosures: I hold the Company and view may be biased. Please note that this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own check before investment.

Real Estate is in bad shape and you may lost money in this Company.

Saturday, May 28, 2016

Company Analysis - SPISYS LTD

SPISYS LTD

About Company

SPISYS LIMITED is engaged in production and marketing of natural extracts.

Company claimed to have Super Critical Fluid Extraction Technology that helps in natural high quality, pure and concentrated spice extracts, active nutraceutical compounds and decaffeinated teas. Company is in operations since April 1997, but top-line till last few years was few crores only.

Company claimed to built its core competencies in the following areas:

·       A technologically superior SCFE (CO2) extraction facility with a capacity to process 1000 MT per annum of botanical materials and dry spices. The extraction facility has been imported from Austria for solid - liquid extraction.
·       In house development of liquid — liquid extraction / fractionation on large scale.
·       A research facility, where over 20 extracts from herbs and spices have been developed.

Company listed on BSE in Jun, 2015.

Below info from AR 2015

Demand for SCF Spice Extracts, Nutraceuticals and Decaffeinated tea is increasing and the company is focusing on expanding it direct customer base.

Company intends to focus on manufacturing and sales of:

1. Ginger Extract’s for Nutraceutical applications as joint pains management.
2. Lutein Extract for the management of Age Related Macular Degeneration.
3. Rosemary antioxidants for the food industry in the management of food oxidation.
4. Chilly, Paprika, Black Pepper Extracts for food flavor applications.
Company now looks forward to directly participate in the Spice Extracts, Decaffeinated Tea and Nutraceutical business which are valued at over US $ 500 Million, US $ 3 Billion and US $ 180 Billion and garner a reasonable market share in these sectors

Below is the link to a presentation about the Company
Annual report of Company provides the good understanding of Industry Structure and Developments.


Financials

Company earned 6.5 cr profit on a sale of 41 cr. in last 4 quarters Average Operating margins are 12%. Company earns high ROE of ~40%.

Company was making losses and seems to start making profit from 2014 (was making losses in 2006 and no records available between 2006 & 2014).

Reserves are negative and reducing – (-) 2.5 cr as of March 2015. TO BE UPDATED POST RESULTS ON 30-MAY-16

Loans are reducing – currently 5.77 cr., out of this approx 2.5 cr (ECB) is from M/s V Mane Fils S.A (OCB) and 2.5 cr from Yatish Trading Company Pvt.

Below is from AR 2015
·       The company has proposed to offer, issue and allot Equity shares to the extent of External Commercial borrowing and accrued interest there on payable M/s V Mane Fils S.A (OCB). Hence, the company has not provided any interest on said loans.

At today’s price, it will dilute the share holding by 8-9% - in case Mane accepts the offer. It may be noted that Mane is in similar business (FLAVOURS, FRAGRANCES & INGREDIENTS).

Also they have provided 45 lacs for share buy back from IDBI contigent liability. Note share capital increased from 8.6 cr to 9.05 cr in 2005. It is possible Company provided shares worth 45 lacs against loan write off, with provision to buy back at cost. Stressed Assets Stabilization Fund (A govt undertaking handling bad debt of IDBI) is holding 450,000 shares as per share holding pattern. If this is the case, it is to the advantage of existing shre holders.

Buyback of shares held by IDBI
45,00,000
45,00,000


Positives
Company is growing at fast pace – more than 40% for last 2 years. No insight provided in AR how they are able to grow that fast. (TO BE CHECKED WITH MANAGEMENT)

They are able to reduce loan and may be debt free / reserve positive in a year time.
It seems they do not need much in term of capital investment. With Fixed assets of 2.5 crores, they are able to do sale of 40 cr (TO BE UPDATED POST RESULTS ON 30-MAY-16)

Targeting to enter into Nutraceuticals – as per management huge market in US (product derived from food sources with extra health benefits in addition to the basic nutritional value found in foods).

Some positive commentary from AR
Replacing conventional organic solvents (Hexane, EDC, MC and Acetone) with SCFE CO2 in extraction procedures is a major advancement in regards to current Food Safety and Regulatory requirements. Supercritical fluid extraction allows for clean, pure and solvent free extracts. Other advantages of supercritical extraction include high efficiency, faster extraction rates, higher concentration of compounds and more selectivity.

Over the years the company has developed several extracts utilizing the SCFE process and achieved competitiveness in being able to compete with the existing traditional solvent extract manufacturers by demonstrating the cost effectiveness and superiority of SCFE products verses the harmful solvent extracted products.

Over the years from serving customers on a contractual basis your company now proposes to directly market the products to the large flavor and fragrance business, achieving direct higher sales revenues and profitability.

Negatives

The availability of raw materials from various sources at the right time, quantity and price. Though Company has established relationships with large suppliers, but this is still a big risk.

Fluctuation in Raw material price will impact the profitability. 

Single vendor concentration risk - may be - no info is available?

Currency fluctuation risk as majority of sale is export.

Only AR for 2015 is available - lack of info on management and Company past is a risk.

Usual risks associated with the micro/nano cap companies

Management

J Sobhanadri: An engineering graduate in Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology with over 30 years of experience as the promoter / Managing Director of Spisys and former Managing Director of Mane India Pvt Ltd a subsidiary of V Mane Fils SA (In Similar business). http://www.mane.com

Dr. Satya S. J was founder member, who is currently, Director Nutrition - Global, Kerry Ingredients Inc., USA a subsidiary of Kerry Ingredients Ireland (in Similar business) http://www.kerrygroup.com

Management seems to be reasonable. They are not getting any salary. Independent directors of Company own shares in excess of 1% and they are not charging any fee.  Hope they are working for the interest of company and taking care of minority shareholders interest as well.

There are enough details in the AR – considering the microcap company.

Promoter had 48% share in March, 15. In Jun, 15 – 42 % and in Sep, 16 – 32%. Why Sobhanadri sold the shares – to be checked.

Nothing wrong with the accounting policies.

Valuation

Company is selling for 32 cr with TTM PAT of 6.5 cr. Market is valuing the Company at the multiple of 5. This seems to be reasonable, considering Nano-microcap company, not much information available in public domain and associated risks with the business.

Additional information on Company future plan is required to make the investment  decision. 

Views are invited.


Disclosures – Holding “itch” position to monitor the company. May decide to dump the company at slightest indication of negatives about the company / business. Please note that this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own check before investment. Investing in stock market may result in loss of capital as it happened with me few times.


Update 17-Oct-19


Open my blog after sometime :-). Updating my previous posts.

This was my mistake and I exist this position after I realize business is worst than commodity.


Sunday, March 17, 2013

Update on Orient Bell



Dhabol to Banglore Gas Pipeline commissioned last month. If company is able to get the gas from GAIL for their plant in Bangalore,  Company should be able to reduce their power bills.

I am not too sure if they have to wait or they can get the gas right away.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/gail-commissions-dabhol-city-gas-pipeline-project-113021800901_1.html


Friday, February 15, 2013

Orient Bell - Q3 2013 results review


I have written about Orient Bell here.

Company declared Q3-21013 quarterly results recently. If you look at the numbers y-o-y, results look good.  Company reported a 55% growth in the topline and 45% growth in the bottomline. All growth in topline is not translated into bottomline due to higher depreciation, interest and tax compared to Q3, 2012. 

But this comparison will not be meaningful as a lot many things have happened since Q3, 2012. A review of what has been changed from last quarter will be more meaningful. Remember that triggers for market to realise the value of Company are debt reduction, topline growth & improvement in operating margins and need to be monitored q-o-q.

On q-o-q basis - topline, operating margins remain flat, but interest increased by 13% and bottom line reduced by 13%. So debt is not reduced (probably increased), topline is same and operating margins are also same @ around 10% even though fuel / power charges increased by 12%. Interest coverage is very low at 1.6 and that’s most worrying part.

I will continue to monitor debt position of Company and would like to see reduction in debt / improvement in DE and interest coverage before increasing my position size.



Disclosures: I hold a small position to track the stock. Please note that this is not a recommendation to buy or sell the stock discussed here. Please do your own check before investment.